See You Next Year!
I will be out of the country and away from an internet connection for the next several weeks, so the soonest I expect to post again is January 4th.
However, I have a few plans for when I resume posting. First of all, I hope to thoroughly update and enhance the links in the right margin of the site. I've discovered numerous blogs and research websites and I hope to add the links as soon as I can. Also, starting next year, I'm hoping to have each post up by noon Pacific Time. The majority of my readers are from the East Coast, so this should make daily reading easier.
In the two-and-a-half months I've been operating this blog, I have enjoyed the support and encouragement of numerous individuals. I would like to thank everyone who has stopped by--whether on purpose or accidentally--and especially those who have been gracious enough to link to my site. Thank you again.
Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
>>> Jesse
12.18.2005
WW4
Ahmadinejad and Hitler >>> Another great piece of historical allegory by Baron Bodissey. Mark Twain sums it up the best: "History does not repeat itself. It rhymes."
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OIF
Iraqi Democracy >>> Note that the Sunni turnout for the December election was 80%. Yes, the Sunni turnout. Even more remarkable is that they appear to have voted overwhelmingly for a Shiite! That's an even bigger democratic faux pas than voting across party lines! They are putting an EXTREMELY volatile religious schism behind them and voting in favor of a greater Iraqi nationalism, an idea that is still in its infancy! This is a sterling example of democracy. I believe, without a single reservation, that Iraq has a far brighter future than this country does. American economic muscle and military prowess are fleeting when compared to the grand scale of the ebb and flow of history. When a state that is governed by the people finds itself in a situation where those people--the very lifeblood of the nation itself--are too complacent to exert their rights to shape their country, that state is not only nearing its extinction, it is already brain-dead.
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12.17.2005
WW4
NSA Surveillance: Benefits >>> I'm somewhat surprised that this NSA eavesdropping story is receiving so much press. They have always been in the SIGINT business, and unlike other intelligence methods SIGINT is extremely broad-based. There is a great deal of information collected and there is often little discrimination in where that information is coming from, making privacy somewhat difficult. In fact, the NSA is only a part of an international SIGINT network known as ECHELON, which intercepts over 3 billion communications every day. There's no way that all 3 billion aren't from private citizens.
British CT Operations Up 75% >>> The claim by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the United States 'rounded up hundreds of Muslim Americans with little debate or dissent is ridiculous. First of all, the hundreds of 'enemy combatants' or what-have-you that have been detained since 9/11 are not 'Muslim-Americans' (read: US citizens). There have been a few of these--such as Jose Padilla--but not 'hundreds'. Furthermore, the idea that these detentions--both US citizens and otherwise--didn't trigger debate or dissent is both incorrect and stupid.
British Intel: London Bombers Not A Threat >>> This is extremely important, so read this very carefully: Stories such as this one are exactly why you see an increased atmosphere of suspicion towards the people by the government after terrorist attacks. As with the Able Danger debacle, the idea that 'we had these guys ahead of time' is going to eliminate any benefit of the doubt in any future situation. Suspects will be assumed guilty before proven innocent. Not because of some Orwellian police state mentality, but because nobody wants to repeat the mistakes of the past. In CT, mistakes = dead people. It is pure Pavlovian conditioning, and people need to realize why.
Al-Qaeda And Iran: Friends Or Foes? >>> As with the Iraq-al-Qaeda connection, 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend.'
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DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
A History Of Precision Weapons >>> A cool little background on the mainstay of modern air support. Tesla rules!
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12.16.2005
WW4
Hezbollah >>> Michael J. Totten spends some time in Lebanon and reports on his experiences with members of the famous terrorist group.
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Iraqi Vote: Reflections >>> More information here.
The Purple Finger >>> You're free to make up your own mind on this one.
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12.15.2005
WW4
Jordan Vows Preemption >>> Great quote from Howard Dean.
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Iraqi Election >>> Mohammed and Omar from Iraq the Model get their purple fingers, and provide a massive compilation of reports from all across Iraq. Also, an Iraqi woman voting in Michigan speaks her mind (Video). Finally, Bill Roggio reports from Barwana, a city near the Syrian border that was major terrorist turf just months ago.
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Border Security >>> It would be nice to see some of the evidence of 'Arabic presence' along the US-Mexican border. If anybody has some relevant information about this, do us all a favor and start sending e-mails. The blogosphere will take it from there.
Radioactive Material Missing >>> This really isn't a lot of nuclear material, but it's never good to hear this kind of news.
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12.14.2005
OIF
On The Eve Of The Iraqi Elections >>> Wretchard on the Iraqi Vote: Part Three
Murtha >>> I've so far refrained from commenting on the recent statements of US Representative John Murtha for a simple reason: What's the big deal? The media made him out to be a pro-military guy who recently turned against the War in Iraq, but in fact he's held that position for months, and he advocated the same type of withdrawal from Somalia in 1993. Not much of a story, if you ask me. However, this article written by a US soldier--and linked to by Gates of Vienna--caught my attention enough to get a link.
Inside The Wolf Brigade >>> 'An Iraqi approach to Iraqi problems.'
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DOMESTIC
Air Marshals To Patrol Land And Sea Transport >>> A number of individuals have expressed some doubt that 'air marshals' should also be assigned to other forms of transportation because they are 'air' marshals. Seriously, people. They should probably change their name to just 'marshals' or something, but the details aren't really important. In truth, the tactics of an air marshal aren't limited to the cabin of a jetliner. In fact, a bus or a train has a similar interior layout that a passenger jet has. But beyond that, marshals are trained to make tactical decisions in all situations. They aren't just limited to linear close quarters interdiction.
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12.13.2005
WW4
Terrorism And Latin America >>> With a massive drug industry, large areas of inhospitable terrain, and poor central government authority, Central and South America are already pristine environments for operating a terrorist group, as groups like FARC and AUC--these guys have helicopter gunships!--have shown. Whether the radical Islamic variety has jumped on the bandwagon remains to be seen.
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DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
F-22: Return To Simplicity? >>> It remains to be seen what the balance will be between F-22s and F-35s. Both are representative of a different kind of war, and it is unclear what kind of threats the next 20 years will bring. Of course, chances are we won't see the threat until it's upon us. So how about half-and-half?
US Meets Recruitment Goals >>> The standard branches--the guys doing most of the fighting--exceeded their goals, while the Reserves and Guard units fell short. However, the Army National Guard did quite well.
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12.12.2005
OIF
Insurgents vs. Al-Qaeda >>> More on the growing divide between the Iraqi insurgency. As there is very little reporting being done on this story, check out my post yesterday for additional information.
Voting Begins In Iraq >>> The major--relatively speaking--area of difficulty remains the Anbar province. Fallujah and Eastern Ramadi are clear, but the rest of Ramadi and the frontier towns along the western Euphrates are still troubled and many voting stations will be closed.
Interview With General Huck >>> Bill Roggio chats the with the commander of the Anbar Campaign. The 'Strategic Corporal' link near the bottom of the post is also worth checking out.
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DOMESTIC
Jamaat ul-Fuqra, New York Compound >>> CP finds another golden nugget of information about Jamaat ul-Fuqra, this time before the 1993 WTC bombing.
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DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
New Tank Round Finally Deploys >>> Yes, this makes the M-1 the world's largest shotgun.
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12.11.2005
WW4
Nuclear Iran >>> Not only is Israel holding general elections on March 28th, but the leaders of the two major political parties have both made clear that they will launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear assets if the international community fails to make any measurable progress on the diplomatic front. Keep your eyes and ears open around the end of March.
Terrorism And Drugs >>> Gates of Vienna has an excellent post covering the connection between the drug trade and terror, and a hypothetical solution worth thinking about.
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OIF
Insurgent Rift Widens, Again >>> This is certainly an important development, but the article fails to mention--not surprisingly--that it's been around for awhile. In my October 27th post, I linked to this article, in which a group of Sunni insurgents not only supported the October 15th referendum, they stood guard at their local voting site.
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12.10.2005
WW4
Balkan Islamists Behind Israel Bombing >>> Another example of how globalization is not just limited to Starbucks and McDonalds.
The IAEA and Iran >>> When I first reported the 'Iran is months away from a bomb' story last week, the additional 2 years it would take to bring the Natanz plant online was missing. My mistake for not researching the story further, I'll start double-checking Drudge's stuff. However, el-Baredei's prediction is still the shortest timeline from an official source, making his attempts to 'cool brinkmanship' awfully ironic.
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OIF
Good News From Iraq >>> Note that these improvements are all within a fairly small region of Iraq, and are not indicative of the total progress being made in the entire country.
The Wild West of Anbar >>> Bill Roggio on the ever-changing face of Iraq and how the Coalition is responding.
Election Posters In Iraq >>> Iraq the Model takes us around Baghdad for a tour through the sea of campaign posters.
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12.9.2005
WW4
Able Danger >>> An excellent look at Able Danger and 'data mining' techniques. A must read for anybody with half an opinion on the intelligence community.
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OIF
The Butcher of Ramadi >>> In case you missed it the first time, he was brought in by Iraqi civilians.
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DOMESTIC
AA Flight 612: Radar >>> It may take a little analysis to understand the images here. Be sure to compare the time codes with the altitude of the 'aircraft', as well as the fact the idea that one aircraft could have split into two. Background on this whole incident here.
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DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
UCAVs >>> Cheesy allusions to the movie 'Stealth' aside, the capability of UCAVs are already remarkable and we'll definitely be seeing more of them in the future.
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12.8.2005
OIF
Insurgents Using Chemical Weapons--On Themselves? >>> There's a lot of background information to be sorted through here, but the drug-use theme is nothing new. Heroin use among insurgents is remarkably high and most people seem surprised to hear this, given the fact that they didn't see it on the nightly news.
Azerbaijani Troops In Iraq >>> An excellent example of the 'Coalition of the Willing'.
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OEF(A)
Afghans Optimistic About Their Future >>> There are numerous different poll questions, and the results give an insightful look at the state of Afghanistan today.
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DOMESTIC
Air Marshal Kills Passenger In Miami >>> The Counterterrorism Blog has the best summary of what happened and why. If the reports are true, then the response of the air marshal(s) was certainly justified, but witness reports of police action is disappointing. Eyewitness accounts indicated that they secured the plane with weapons raised and pointed at the passengers. (This is extremely reckless. Weapons need to be aimed downwards with the safety disengaged and finger outside the trigger guard until firing the weapon becomes necessary.) One passenger reported that he was instructed to turn around by an officer who pressed a shotgun barrel against the back of his head. (Aside from the obvious danger/psychological trauma involved with this tactic, you would have to be a complete idiot to choose a shotgun for a crowded environment like an airplane cabin.) The police either need some serious firearms training or at least a shot of common sense.
Truckers vs. Terror >>> Why not?
American Airlines Flight 612 >>> This is the full thread at the Free Republic internet forum concerning the report of a passenger jet out of LAX sighting what appeared to be a surface-to-air missile on November 28th. It is quite long, so don't bother reading it all unless you want to know absolutely everything. Most notable is an audio clip of a conversation between the aircraft and the LAX tower.****************
DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
Russia Set To Dominate Portable Anti-Armor Market >>> Compared to the archaic RPG-7s in use in Iraq, these RPG-26/27s are formidable anti-tank weapons. Also note the minimal presence of the Chinese in the international production market. Why? Because they could buy them just as easily from Russian firms.
Myths About Military Recruits >>> Now you know, and knowing is half the battle!
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No Post Today
I'm not going to have time to assemble a post today, as evidenced by the fact that I'm writing this at 9 PM! (Sorry)
But I will be back tomorrow.
12.6.2005
OIF
The 'New' Strategy In Iraq >>> Security Watchtower has an excellent post on how developments in the Anbar province of Iraq have long been ignored and are just coming to the media's attention, often with interesting results. Once again, let's hear it for the blogs.
Patrolling Haqlaniyah >>> Bill Roggio on another day with the Marines in Western Iraq.
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12.5.2005
WW4
IAEA Confirms: Iran Months Away From A Nuke >>> Well, this is a surprise in light of the optimistic reports shown here and here. The Israelis have repeatedly said that Iran was only months away from developing nuclear weapons, but the IAEA's confirmation adds a great deal of weight to their claim. Former Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, currently campaigning for the leadership of the Israeli Likud Party, has remarked that he would support a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear program (more info here), though recent US military studies have ruled such a strike extremely difficult, if not impossible. And one more thing: As of yet, I have seen no coverage of the IAEA confirmation in any of the TV news networks or newspapers. Go figure.
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OIF
The River War In Iraq >>> Bill Roggio reports from Iraq on his time with the company of Marines guarding the critical Haditha Dam.
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Israeli Arrow Test Successful >>> There are a number of excellent links at the bottom of this post for those of you looking for additional information.
Long-Distance Warriors >>> Behind every UAV is a pilot. Time Magazine goes behind the scenes in Nellis Air Force base outside Las Vegas, Nevada and sheds some light on the people behind victories like this. Note that while the article mentions the Predator can carry two Hellfire missiles, newer versions can carry up to fourteen.
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12.4.2005
WW4
Al-Qaeda Rejects Algerian Recruits >>> If true, this is another example of the difficulty faced by Western intelligence agencies in penetrating the ranks of al-Qaeda.
'Wiped Off The Map' >>> Remember that the uproar over Ahmadinejad's comment was purely concerning his threat towards Israel, but as this post--which is over a month old--points out, the United States was also singled out as a target. As DoctorZin mentions, "Why is no one taking these threats seriously?"
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OIF
Iraqi Commandos >>> As tough as their training is, the real test for all of these troops is the fight against the insurgency in their own country.
Sorting Out The Iraqi Election >>> Omar and Mohammed at Iraq the Model have found an interactive online 'electionnaire' to make it easier for Iraqis to figure out which candidates they should vote for. It's worth noting that Mohammed, Omar and their two friends--a total of two Sunnis and two Shiites--all think along the lines of the two major Kurdish parties. I took the quiz, and so did I.
****************DEFENSE & TECHNOLOGY
Go Big Or Go Home? >>> I am obligated to mention my past prediction that the XM8 will return, and it will be chambered for the 6.8mm cartridge.
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12.3.2005
WW4
CIA Kills Al-Qaeda Operations Leader >>> This is currently receiving nowhere near the news coverage it should. Sure, good news is usually boring, but what's boring about a Predator UAV carrying out a covert missile strike on a terrorist leader? I'm enthralled! And another al-Qaeda leader blows himself up in Dagestan. Take a look at the chart of 'Foreign Mujahideen of the Caucasus' (PDF file) to see the big picture.
MANPAD At LAX? >>> Possible connection here? Also, check out the incident at Tinker Air Force base in July 2005, with supporting information here. And to top it all off, the TWA Flight 800 Conspiracy. Usually when I smell a conspiracy theory I quickly run in the opposite direction, but literally every time I go to an airport I am struck by the ease at which anybody with a basic SAM could down a passenger jet and escape undetected. The tactical vulnerabilities are just far too great. I'll be flying out of LAX in the next several weeks, and I have no allusions concerning my safety. My point is this: Just like a terrorist nuclear detonation in a major American city or a chemical/biological attack in a crowded location, this kind of attack will happen eventually.
International Terrorist Reveals All >>> An EXCELLENT article with information on everything from 'enhanced interrogation techniques' to another crack in the 'all terrorists are poor' argument. (Hat tip: DV)
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OIF
ISF AT 225,000 For Election >>> As I've mentioned before, given the current rate of increase, we are ahead of schedule for the goal of 270,000 by July/August 2006. I'm going to go ahead and predict that we reach the 270K mark around May/June.
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Jamaat ul-Fuqra, Part III >>> Baron Bodissey and the Open Source Intelligence Network of the blogosphere have provided another look into JF. This time, we travel back to the one that started it all--the compound in Red House, VA.
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12.2.2005
WW4
Bangladesh's First Suicide Bombings >>> Note the 'al-Qaeda in South Asia' claim is other indication of how the name 'al-Qaeda' has transcended the limits of a physical organization to become an ephemeral ideology, in fact the calling card of 21st century Islamic terrorism.
Serbia: Terrorism And Organized Crime >>> The notion of the 'Western Gate of the Balkans' connecting Europe to the Middle East is not a new idea. Due to simple geographic fate, this part of the world has always been the avenue of all sorts of traffic between the two regions, whether it be trade, religion, or violent radicalism. A brief study of the fall of the Byzantine Empire and the rise of the Ottomans in the 15th century highlights the connection between the Balkans and the Aegean hinterland of Anatolia (Turkey), a connection which is still a major factor today.
The Visa Waiver Program >>> This is the wrench in the gears of American Anti-Terrorism. In asymmetrical warfare such as this, the enemy can take any form and come from any direction. With Europe being one of the major stomping grounds of radical--and violent--Islam, countries participating in the Visa Waiver Program make the perfect place to assemble an attack on the United States.
Iranian Air Defense >>> This is no surprise considering the chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear reactor. After all, they did it to Iraq in 1981.
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Ramadi >>> Roggio has a look at yet another operation in Ramadi, and how the media has failed to grasp what's really going on there.
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DOMESTIC
Al-Qaeda In The US >>> More on the shift of al-Qaeda from organization to ideology here.
Sharp Objects On Planes >>> There is an important dynamic that has been largely ignored by these reports: Before 9/11, airplane hijackings were all about getting the plane to land somewhere else than was originally planned. Therefore, as long as the passengers didn't interfere, they would be unharmed. After 9/11, any airplane hijacking will be viewed as another potential suicide-style attack, and the passengers will quickly accept that their lives are forfeit and will move to prevent the attack in any way they can. I call this the 'Flight 93 Mentality'. With this in mind, a handful of terrorists armed with blades will pose little or no threat to the passengers and crew, who will certainly outnumber them by at least 20 to 1. The terrorists won't even make it to the cockpit, and whatever weapons they have will soon be rendered useless by the passenger assault, especially once they figure out that the 'flotation devices' underneath them would make an excellent shield against a boxcutter or folding knife. As for letting scissors or folding knives back on planes, consider this: With the ban in place, the terrorists would inevitably improvise some other type of weapon capable of escaping detection, a task which any prison inmate will tell you is ridiculously easy. However, the passengers would be largely unarmed--having not planned for any mid-air close combat within their travel itinerary--and their assault will be quite difficult. Now reverse the situation by lifting the ban and the advantage shifts. Statistically, the chances are that the much greater number of passengers will possess some sort of 'weapon' in a greater quantity than the small team of terrorists. The passengers will quickly defeat the terrorists with minimal losses, thanks to the statistical probability of their armaments.
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12.1.2005
WW4
Belgian Couple Arrested For Plotting Suicide Attack >>> This comes after another Belgian couple attempted a suicide bombing in Iraq on November 9th. That attack failed when her VBIED failed to kill anybody and he was shot in the head by US forces. Why all the CT in Belgium? Background here.
And In Kenya >>> This is an interesting development for Africa. Excepting the 1998 Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and the more frequent attacks in Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria, the continent is largely free of suicide-style attacks. The arrest of three Ethiopian bombers who apparently wished to target South Africa is a radical new dynamic in Africa.
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OIF
96% Of Suicide Bombers Are Foreigners >>> This number seems very high, but keep in mind that suicide attacks are almost always undertaken by foreign fighters, as they are typically more radical--they traveled from Belgium or wherever just to blow themselves up--and they are inexperienced, which makes their death a relatively minor loss in terms of insurgent assets. This should not be used indicate the number of foreign fighters in Iraq--which is far from clear--but rather what particular method they tend to choose when carrying out their attacks. The same thing is now happening in the 'Stan.
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DOMESTIC
Jamaat ul-Everywhere >>> Baron Bodissey takes another trip to rural Virginia. This is a must read. So read it.
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F/A/R/C/E-22 Raptor >>> This is getting just a bit ridiculous. The hype surrounding the F-22 is just a bit nauseating, considering we won't ever need the thing unless we find ourselves at war with China. As for cutting the F-35 in favor of the Raptor, Murdoc sums it all up here.
Speaking Of China >>> This will be China's first aircraft carrier. The United States has twenty-four of them, and one of our normal Nimitz carriers is substantially larger than China's. So why do we keep hearing that a US-China brawl would end with us having to learn Mandarin? (Hat tip: DV)
New Zealand's Super Weapon >>> Sorry. I couldn't resist.
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